Monday, December 5, 2011

Tim Tebow

It's been several weeks since I explained why I feel the way I do about Tim Tebow. So I don't want to go into that again. Let's just talk football.

I want to first begin by explaining why Tebow was successful in college. The formula for winning in college football is simple: play great defense, make plays on special teams, and then you run up the middle every single play with your star player. Seriously. In college, having an ordinary passing game is ok.

Cam Newton, Mark Ingram, Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, Vince Young, Joseph Addai, Jacob Hester (not a stud, but converted so many critical 3rd/4th and shorts), and Reggie Bush.

College is all about the running game, because college football is all about consistency. A power run team never changes. You don't have off days when it is raining or windy. That star defensive end doesn't matter as much. You get long drives, and make less mistakes. You control field position. You don't turn the ball over. You hold onto leads. You convert key short yardage situations. You don't need a superstar QB. You merely need a game manager, which is why Greg Mcleroy, Matt Flynn, Matt Mauk, and this year's champion can win.

Based off those requirements, Tim Tebow was the ideal college QB.

Consistency means you have a chance to go undefeated. That's why prolific passing offenses lose against teams like Iowa State every year. Although your peaks with a great passing games are higher, your valleys are much lower as well. Better to bring your B game every week in college football than fluctuating between an A and an F, because 1 loss could end your season.

The NFL is the complete opposite. Consistency doesn't mean anything. Teams that struggle during the regular season often times get hot and win Super Bowls. Their overall body of work may not be pretty, but when they play at their best, they can compete with anyones. Having a higher peak is more important than being consistent. Which is why the passing game is so important in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning are all capable of playing a perfect game. You need that kind of QB, because you'll need that kind of game at some point in the playoffs.

Which leads us to Tim Tebow. We all know that building the team around Tebow will be more difficult (can't have receivers with big egos, have to have a playmaking D, enough running back depth to handle the load, ect.), but let's assume Denver does a great job of managing the roster and putting the right players around Tebow. In that case, I wouldn't be surprised if Tebow continues winning regular season games like he's been doing. He doesn't turn the ball over, he keeps the clock moving, he keeps his team in the game, and he can convert key short yardage sitautions. He's consistent, which makes his team consistent. A consistent team should be good for 9-10 games a year. Tebow will probably lead his team to the playoffs almost every year from here on out (assuming they still play the same field position time games). Tim Tebow's been a much better pro than I ever thought he'd be, and his game against Minnesota was the best of his career.

But can he win a Super Bowl? I still don't think so. Not until he learns to throw the football. Put me down for being a non-believer. I think this is as good as Tebow as we're going to see for a while. I don't think this Denver Broncos team has that extra gear. I don't know if he can make the perfect throw to covered receivers over and over again in the playoffs. If you saw Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, you saw a QB who threw receivers open almost every throw down the stretch. Tebow still can't do that. I don't think he ever will.

The reason John Elway is hesitant to commit to Tebow is he may be what I think is the most dangerous QB to own. The type of QB that can get you the playoffs every year, but never win the Super Bowl. Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Steve McNair, McNabb, ect. All those guys won a lot of football games. They put up great numbers. Franchise committed to them for a long time. Never won a Super Bowl. Looking back, they would have been much better served finding a new QB earlier. John Elway doesn't want to spend 10 years falling short. He wants a QB capable of being elite. Or he wants to keep looking for someone new.

1 comment:

  1. the best link is a link to your own article. well done.